Britain went to the polls on June 8 for a snap general election.
And as the campaigns unfolded over 50 days, the eyes of thousands of strategists, politicians and the public are on the polls.
Pollsters got a bad rep after they mostly missed Brexit and the scale of the Tories’ 2015 majority.
But taken together, surveys still make an interesting read – and illustrate the scale of the task ahead of the Labour Party .
We’ve been updating this article as the campaign unfolds to include commentary, stats and links for the latest major public polls. Scroll down for more – the newest polls are at the top.
Find the latest general election 2017 betting odds .
Rolling poll tracker since 2015
Adjusted rolling average of voting intentions from several pollsters, compiled by Britain Elects
June 10 – Labour would win if the election was today, Labour would win
SUMMARY: Con 39%, Lab 45%, Lib Dems 7%, UKIP 3%, Others 6%
SAMPLE: 1,036 UK adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Jeremy Corbyn would be Prime Minister if an election was held tomorrow, according to the pollster which most accurately predicted Thursday’s election result.
This poll by Survation put Labour six points ahead of the Tories on 45% of the vote. The Tories, meanwhile, polled 39% – almost four points below their result in the general election.
It is the first time since Theresa May took power that any poll has put Labour ahead of the Conservatvies.
SUMMARY: Almost half of the public – including a quarter of Tory voters – thought Mrs May should resign as Prime Minister. Some 49% of those polled said the beleaguered Tory leader should quit, with just 38% saying she should stay.
And 41% of respondents said she should resign immediately.
The exit poll
June 8: Theresa May’s plan backfires as exit poll points to hung parliament
SUMMARY (SEATS): Con 314, Lab 266, SNP 34, Lib Dems 14, UKIP 0, Plaid Cymru 3, Green 1, Others 18
BY: NOP/Ipsos MORI for the BBC/Sky News/ITV News
WHAT IT FOUND: According to analysis of the poll result by professor of politics John Curtice, it means the Tories will be the largest party, but will be short of a majority in the House of Commons.
It also gives Labour their highest number of seats in the House since 2005.
How many seats might each party win?
Here are YouGov’s seat projection models for each day in the run-up to the election. Please note these are not the same as opinion polls, and use a very different method. 326 seats are needed for an overall majority.
June 7: Con 269-334, Lab 238-302
June 6: Con 265-342, Lab 230-300
June 5: Con 268-344, Lab 234-299
June 3: Con 265-340, Lab 230-301
June 2: Con 279-346, Lab 231-286
June 1: Con 285-353, Lab 219-285
May 31: Con 275-344, Lab 227-289
The election polls, one by one
June 6-7: FINAL POLLS – Tory lead ranges from 0.9 points to 13
SUMMARY: Con 41.3%, Lab 40.4% , Lib Dem 7.8%, UKIP 2.4%, SNP 3.6%, Plaid Cymru 1.7 Green 2.3% Others 0.5%
WHAT IT FOUND: Survation has consistently put Labour much closer to the Tories than any other pollster – but this is the closest even they have been.
Their final poll put Jeremy Corbyn just 0.9% behind Theresa May on vote share – with a standard 2-3 point margin for error, it doesn’t get much squeakier than that.
All the other final polls of the campaign:
- Comres: Con 44%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 9%, Ukip 5%
- Surveymonkey: Con 42%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 6%, Ukip 4%
- Panelbase: Con 44%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, Ukip 5%, Green 2%
- YouGov: Con 42%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 10%, Ukip 5%, Green 2%
- BMG: Con 46%, Lab 33%, Lib Dems 8%, Ukip 5%
- Ipsos MORI: Con 44%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 4%
- Kantar: Con 43%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 4%
June 1-7: Kantar’s final poll suggests only slightly larger Tory majority
SUMMARY: Con 43%, Lab 38% , Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 4%, SNP 4%
SAMPLE: 2,159 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Kantar’s final poll shrank Theresa May’s vote share lead to five points, down from 10 points a week ago.
It’s not enough to make Labour the largest party, but it’s enough to limit Theresa May’s formal majority in the House of Commons to just 32, only slightly larger than it was when the election was called.
RANDOM STAT: At least six of Labour’s 38 points of vote share in this poll came from ‘new voters’ – that’s people who did not vote in 2015. The pollster said: “A risk for Labour is that this group shifts intention at the last, leading to a bigger than anticipated loss.”
June 6-7: Tories look set for massively increased majority, say ICM
SUMMARY: Con 46%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 5%, SNP 5%, Green 2%, Other 1%
BY : ICM
SAMPLE : 1532 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND : ICM’s final poll for the Guardian will be a blow to those hopeful that Labour’s numbers would keep going the right way. The preliminary results for their final poll showed no further change – and a one point bump for the Tories, leaving them 12 points in front
But the pollster notes these are early figures, and a further 500 interviews were still to be carried out before the research was complete.
RANDOM STAT: ICM have fed their numbers through the Electoral Calculus seat predictor, which predicts a vastly increased Tory majority of 96 – 373 seats to Labour’s 199.
Crushingly, the Lib Dems are predicted to be down to just two seats in this model.
June 4-6: Corbyn doesn’t cross the line as Tories set to increase majority
(Photo: Getty Images Europe)
SUMMARY : Con 43%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 5%, Others 8%
BY : Opinium
SAMPLE : 3,002 UK adults online
WHAT IT FOUND : Despite all the progress Jeremy Corbyn made in closing the gap, Opinium’s final poll of the campaign predicted the Tories would increase their majority. It kept the lead at seven points, one more than the party had a week earlier, with Labour down one point.
RANDOM STAT : Theresa May’s personal approval rating had still dropped from +21% to +5% over the campaign. “The campaign has damaged the reputation of the Prime Minister, despite a likely Conservative win,” Opinium said.
June 5: UKIP voters flooding out to the Tories
SUMMARY : N/A
BY : ComRes
SAMPLE : 527 GB adults who voted UKIP in 2015, online
WHAT IT FOUND : This poll predicted a collapse in support for Paul Nuttall’s party after the departure of pint-swigging Nigel Farage as leader. Of those surveyed, 48% of people who voted UKIP in 2015 were planning to vote Tory this time. Just 23% were sticking with the purple party and 11% were switching to Labour.
June 2-3: Parties almost neck and neck with days to go
(Photo: Ian Forsyth)
SUMMARY : Con 41.5%, Lab 40.4% , Lib Dem 6%, Ukip 3%
BY : Survation
SAMPLE : 1,103 UK adults by phone
WHAT IT FOUND : The Tories and Labour were almost neck and neck in this stunning poll published two days before the election. The Conservatives had a 17-point lead with the pollster at the start of May.
RANDOM STAT : More than half of those polled (52%) thought Jeremy Corbyn had a better campaign than Theresa May, regardless of their intention to vote. Just 27% picked Theresa May.
June 2-4: Turnout crucial as Labour gap remains at 11 points
SUMMARY : Con 45%, Lab 34% , LD 8%, Ukip 5%
BY : ICM
SAMPLE : 2,000 UK adults online
WHAT IT FOUND : This poll suggested Labour’s march on the Tories may have been slowing in the final week before polling day, with the gap at 11 points – just one point smaller than the last ICM poll a week earlier. ICM director Martin Boon warned the “Labour surge” in recent polls had been partly down to “younger people and 2015 non-voters saying they will now turn out, and vote for Labour” So it would all depend on who turns up on the day.
June 3: Labour just one point behind Tories in first poll since leaders’ Question Time grilling
(Photo: WPA Pool)
SUMMARY : Con 40%, Lab 39% , LD 8%, Ukip 5%
BY : Survation
SAMPLE : 1,049 UK adults
WHAT IT FOUND : The first poll carried out entirely after Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May were grilled by a studio audience on Question Time showed a sharp drop in the Conservative lead. There is now just one point between the two parties with five days to go until the general election. A massive 36% of respondents said Mr Corbyn’s performance on the show made them more likely to vote Labour. And 24% said it made them less likely to vote Labour.
RANDOM STAT : Jeremy Corbyn ‘s refusal on Question Time to condemn the IRA specifically (he spoke more generally about how there was wrongdoing on both sides) was not seen unfavourably by the majority. While 38.5% said this made him unfit to be PM, 20.8% said it did not make him unfit and 28.8% said this view was not relevant to the job.
Also released on Saturday, June 3
- ORB: Con 45%, Lab 36% , LD 8%, Ukip 4%
- ICM: Con 45%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, Ukip 5%
- YouGov: Con 42%, Lab 38% , LD 9, Ukip 4%
May 30-31: Labour’s poll ratings grow for the fifth week in a row
(Photo: Christopher Furlong)
SUMMARY : Con 43%, Lab 37% , LD 6%, Ukip 5%, Green 2%
BY : Opinium
SAMPLE : 2,006 GB adults
WHAT IT FOUND : Labour’s projected vote share is up for the fifth week in a row. This week they have snatched two points from the Tories, closing the gap to six. Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said: “Labour are inching closer but still aren’t quite there and the gap between Mrs May and Mr Corbyn is bigger than that between their parties. Labour are consolidating the anti-Conservative vote. While the Tories are only two points down from their peak at the beginning of the campaign (43% vs 45%), Labour are 11 points higher than they were then (37% vs. 26%).”
RANDOM STAT : Voters trust Labour with the NHS nearly twice as much as the Conservatives. On this issue, there is now a huge 20 point gap between the parties, 43% to 23%.
May 31-June 1: Theresa May’s personal approval ratings go into negative for the first time
SUMMARY : Con 47%, Lab 35% , LD 8%, Ukip 4%, Green 1%
BY : ComRes
SAMPLE : 2,038 GB adults
WHAT IT FOUND : The Tory lead of 12 points was unchanged on the previous week’s ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror, but the Prime Minister’s personal approval rating has gone into the negative for the first time – 42% of respondents view her unfavourably and 39% favourably. This is a net score of -3. Jeremy Corbyn is on -15. The NHS, Brexit and national security appear to be the most important areas for the public at this election.
RANDOM STAT : Another hung parliament is voters’ worst fear – just 28% of those polled would like to see such an outcome on June 9.
May 30-June 1: Labour breaks 40% barrier – climbing six points in two weeks
(Photo: Christopher Furlong)
SUMMARY: Con 45%, Lab 40, LD 7%, Ukip 2%
BY: Ipsos Mori
SAMPLE: 1,046 adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This poll saw Labour take another chunk out of the Tories poll lead – increasing their share by six points, and reducing the difference to five. And Theresa May’s personal rating has taken a hit too. Half of voters still think she’d make a better Prime Minister, but that figure is down by six points to 50%. Corbyn on the other hand is up six points to 35%.
RANDOM STAT: A third of voters say they have no opinion on Tim Farron.
May 26-June 1: Yet another poll has Labour narrowing the gap
SUMMARY: Con 44%, Lab 36% , Lib Dems 7%, UKIP 5%
SAMPLE: 1,224 adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This poll made yet more healthy reading for Labour after a good couple of weeks. The Tory lead was still eight points – but it was down from 15 in the last Panelbase survey.
May 26-31: Labour 17 POINTS ahead in London – with Corbyn preferred over May
SUMMARY (London): Lab 50%, Con 33% , Lib Dems 11%, UKIP 3%, Others 3%
SAMPLE: 1,000 London adults
WHAT IT FOUND: Londoners won’t win or lose the election, but Jeremy Corbyn would no doubt have been delighted with this poll. It put his party a clear 17 points ahead of the Tories, up from 16 points a week earlier. But more significantly, his personal ratings overtook Theresa May’s. Some 37% picked him as the best PM, compared to 34% saying Theresa May. A week earlier, she was on 38% and he was on 32%.
RANDOM STAT: Perhaps there was a Sadiq Khan effect. The Labour mayor ended eight years of Tory rule under Boris Johnson in the capital, and 61% of those asked said he was doing well as mayor. Just 20% said he was doing badly.
May 30-31: Tory lead down to just 3 points – the smallest of the campaign
SUMMARY: Con 42%, Lab 39% , Lib Dems 7%, UKIP 4%, Others 8%
SAMPLE: 1,875 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Jeremy Corbyn will have felt triumph over this poll that showed Theresa May’s attacks on him after Manchester – accusing him of saying terror attacks are “our fault”, and asking voters to picture him “naked and alone” in Brussels – didn’t seem to be working. Labour’s 39% vote share was higher than the 35.3% with which it won the 2005 election.
RANDOM STAT: Theresa May continued to be seen as the best choice for Prime Minister – but her 43% share was the lowest it has ever been from YouGov.
May 22-27: Labour LEVEL with the Tories in Scotland
SUMMARY (Scotland): SNP 43%, Con 25%, Lab 25% , Lib Dems 5%
BY: Ipsos MORI
SAMPLE: 1,016 adults by phone
WHAT IT FOUND: This poll quietly brought the Tories and Labour level north of the border after Ruth Davidson’s blues leapfrogged into second place last year. Could it be true? Previous polls in our tracker were carried out by different pollsters so are not directly comparable – but it’s still an interesting result.
RANDOM STAT: The ‘No’ to independence camp had a six-point lead, on 53% to Yes’s 47%.
May 25-30: Labour ahead on the NHS, but still behind overall
SUMMARY: CON 43%, LAB 33% , LD 11%, UKIP 4%
WHAT IT FOUND: Little change in headline voting intention in this Kantar poll, but the interesting part is the issues question. Labour are trusted most to run the NHS, Social care and education and but lag behind on negotiating Brexit , the economy, immigration, reducing crime and national security.
RANDOM STAT: Some 58% of those polled thought Theresa May “likes to be the centre of attention”, compared to 42% for Corbyn. More people also said Mrs May was the most easily irritated – 52%.
May 31: YouGov’s shock seat projection
SUMMARY (Seats) : Con 310, Lab 257, SNP 50, Northern Ireland Parties: 18, Lib Dems, 10, Plaid Cymru 3, Green 1, Other 1
WHAT IT FOUND: It’s worth noting this is not a normal poll. It’s a seat-by-seat estimate of the number of seats each party will get based on YouGov’s new prediction model and some 50,000 interviews over the course of a week. As such, it’s not easy to pick apart – and a lot of people are quite sceptical of the result.
There is a very wide margin of error in YouGov’s prediction. The Times say the Tories could get 345 seats on a good night, or just 274 on a bad night.
The pollster say they’ll be updating their seat predictions regularly between now and the election, so while it should be handled with care, it’s worth keeping an eye on over the next week.
May 26-29: Tory lead drops two points in a week
SUMMARY: Con 45%, Lab 33%, Lib 8%, UKIP 5%, Others 9%
SAMPLE: 2,002 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: The Tory lead continued to narrow in this poll, down from 22 points three weeks earlier to 12. That’d still give Theresa May’s party a healthy majority, but it followed the pattern of other polls in the second half of May narrowing the gap.
RANDOM STAT: Since what they said at the start of the campaign, 24% of Tory-leaning voters said they were now less likely to vote, compared to just 14% saying they were more likely. Labour’s campaign appeared more effective. Some 25% of Labour-leaning voters were more likely to vote. 18% were less likely.
May 26-27: Corbyn surges as Tory lead down to 6 points
SUMMARY: Con 43%, Lab 37%, Lib 8%, UKIP 4%, Others 7%
SAMPLE: 1,009 UK adults by phone
WHAT IT FOUND: Jeremy Corbyn ‘s personal rating surged nine points in this poll as the Tory lead narrowed to just six points. Some 30% of voters said Mr Corbyn would make the best Prime Minister. He was still far behind Theresa May on 53%. But overall the poll put Labour on 37%, up eight points in a fortnight.
RANDOM STAT: This poll asked directly about responses to the Manchester attack. Theresa May was in the lead with 56% saying she did a good job to respond to the tragedy, compared to 33% saying the same of Jeremy Corbyn . Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham was ahead of both on 58% but the Queen topped them all with 75%.
Summary: Five Sunday polls published 11 days before the election
- ComRes: Con 46%, Lab 34%. Tory lead falls from 18 to 12 points (below)
- Opinium: Con 45%, Lab 33%. Tory lead falls from 19 to 10 points (below)
- ORB: Con 44%, Lab 38%. Tory lead falls from 12 to 6 points (below)
- YouGov: Con 43%, Lab 36%. Tory lead rises from 5 to 7 points
ICM: Con 46%, Lab 32%. Tory lead unchanged at 14 points
May 24-26: Corbyn buoyed further as Tories lose 6% over two weeks
SUMMARY: Con 46%, Lab 34%, Lib 8%, UKIP 5%, Others 7%
SAMPLE: 2,024 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: An exclusive poll for the Sunday Mirror found the Tory lead has fallen from 18 points to 12 over a fortnight . Theresa May’s dementia tax U-turn and how to pay for it seems to have dented the Conservatives’ early poll lead. Only a fifth of voters in our poll said Mrs May is most likely to protect elderly people dependent on social care, while Mr Corbyn scored 43%. In fact, when quizzed about personal attributes, Mrs May’s individual ratings fell in all but on category – who is best to represent Britain on the world stage. She scored nearly half while only a fifth of voters opted for Mr Corbyn.
RANDOM STAT: When asked who is most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism, Theresa May came out on top with 41% in the wake of the Manchester suicide bombing – but this was down 6% on ComRes’s previous poll. Jeremy Corbyn gained one point. But the big winner was “don’t know” with a gain of 5%.
May 24-25: Tory lead halves as women flock to Labour
SUMMARY: Con 44%, Lab 38% , Lib 7%, UKIP 5%, Others 6%
SAMPLE: Not provided
WHAT IT FOUND: This poll narrowed the Tory gap from 12 points to just 6. But there was a more striking finding. With women, the two parties are nearly equal – with 40% choosing Labour while 41% chose the Conservatives. Remain voters also appeared to be moving away from Theresa May’s party as she made an appeal to UKIPpers.
RANDOM STAT: In a poll after the Manchester terror attack, 57% said they would trust Theresa May and the Conservatives to keep Britain safe. Just 30% said the same of Jeremy Corbyn and Labour.
May 23-24: Tory lead nearly halves but May still more trusted to fight terrorism
SUMMARY: Con 45%, Lab 33%, Lib 7%, UKIP 5%, Others 9%
SAMPLE: 2,002 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: The Tory lead has fallen from 19 points to 10. This is the narrowest an Opinium poll has been at any point of the campaign so far. And the Prime Minister’s approval ratings have dropped from last week (down from +17% to +11%), while Jeremy Corbyn ’s have risen from net -18% to -11%. Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said: “It’s understandable that this week’s tragic events would have an impact on the campaign and make many of us consider the potential danger of terrorism. However, it’s encouraging to see that the key issues in this election before the terrible events in Manchester remain the key drivers for voters.”
RANDOM STAT: The Conservatives were viewed as the most trusted to deal with the potential terrorism threat, with just over two in five (42%) seeing Theresa May as a leader able to keep Britain safe.
May 24-25: Labour dramatically closes the gap in first poll after Manchester attack
SUMMARY: Con 43%, Lab 38%, Lib 10%, UKIP 4%, Others 6%
SAMPLE: 2,052 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Labour had been closing the vast gap in the polls rapidly before the Manchester attack. And this appeared to confirm it. The Tory lead was down to just five points – which would cut the Tories’ majority to just two. However, the Manchester attack is not the only factor. YouGov’s previous poll was also carried out before the furore over the ‘ dementia tax ‘. The pollster’s director Anthony Wells said: “It has been a highly unusual few days in an election campaign, arguably unlike any other in history. There is no way of guessing what will happen in the two weeks to polling day.”
RANDOM STAT: The poll revealed, once again, a massive generation gap. Labour has nearly triple the support of the Tories among under-25s – 59% to just 22% for Theresa May’s party. But among pensioners, the Tories have 67% support compared to just 19% for Labour.
A TNS/Kantar poll before the Manchester atrocity put the Conservatives down five points on 42%, with Labour up five on 34%, Lib Dems up a point on 9% and Ukip down two on 4%.
May 18-21: Labour pulls back into a 10-POINT lead in Wales
SUMMARY (WALES): Lab 44%, Con 34%, Plaid 9%, Lib 6%, UKIP 5%
SAMPLE: 1,025 Welsh adults
WHAT IT FOUND: In an incredible turnaround, this poll showed support for Labour surging back to levels slightly higher than 2015 in Wales. What is astonishing is that two earlier YouGov polls, part of the Welsh Political Barometer by Cardiff University, gave the Tories clear leads as high as 10 points.
RANDOM STAT: While health has often come up as the top issue elsewhere, Brexit appeared to trump it in Wales. 54% of people said it was the most important election issue to them, compared to 42% saying health.
May 19-21: Labour gets its best ICM score for a year
SUMMARY: Con 47%, Lab 33%, Lib 9%, UKIP 4%, Others 7%
SAMPLE: 2,014 GB adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This poll continued a new trend of Labour closing the gap. The Tories were still 14 points ahead, but this was down from 20 points the week before. And the 33% Jeremy Corbyn ‘s party had was the highest vote share since June 2016. However, it wasn’t by any means good news. ICM predicted this would still allow the Tories to win nearly 400 seats.
RANDOM STAT: UKIP’s 4% was the lowest share ever recorded online by ICM. Some of that can be explained by a change of methodology.
May 19-20: Labour HALVES the gap as poll gives Tories second single-digit lead in a row
SUMMARY: Con 43%, Lab 34%, Lib 8%, UKIP 4%, Others 10%
SAMPLE: 1,034 UK adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This was the second poll in just two days that reduced the Tory lead to single digits. While Labour would still have a very long way to go, it was up five points on the last Survation poll to 34% – higher than it got in 2015. The Tories were down by five points to 43%. The poll was conducted immediately after the Tory and Labour manifestos were released.
RANDOM STAT: Labour was massively outspent on social media advertising in 2015. This time slightly more people recalled seeing Labour messages on social media (44%) than Tory ones (40%). This could of course be down to the ‘organic’ spread of messages, rather than paid-for adverts.
May 18-19: Tory lead shrinks to single digits after Manifesto backlash
(Photo: Splash News)
SUMMARY: Con 44%, Lab 35%, Lib 9%, Greens 3%, UKIP 3%
SAMPLE: 1,925 GB adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This was the first poll since the election was called to put Labour less than 10 points behind the Tories. Compared to the same poll the previous week, Labour saw a 4 point bump, ad the Tories lost 5. Fieldwork was completed after the Manifesto launch – but before a lot of the media coverage, which saw a huge backlash to Theresa May’s plans to slash winter fuel payments and change social care funding.
RANDOM STAT: While the Lib Dem focus on a second referendum doesn’t seem to have translated into vote share, the idea is picking up steam – perhaps encouraged by a decent performance from Tim Farron in Thursday’s TV debate. Just 34% thought a referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal was a good idea a week ago – this week it’s 58%.
May 17-18: A quarter of Labour voters say party should formally split if Corbyn loses
(Photo: Matt Cardy)
SUMMARY: Con 46%, Lab 34%, Lib 7%, UKIP 7%
SAMPLE: 2,040 GB adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This poll gave some hope to Labour in the week of the party’s manifesto launch, with Jeremy Corbyn ‘s party climbing two points and narrowing the Conservative lead to 12 points. The Tories were unchanged on the previous week. It also showed an increase in the number of 2015 Labour voters who now say they will vote Labour again – up to 82% from 78% a week ago. The poll was carried out on the days of the Tory and Lib Dem manifesto launches, so their full impact on voting intention may not be fully realised in this poll.
RANDOM STAT: The poll asked participants whether “Labour should formally split and a group should breakaway and form a new party if it does not win power at this election”. Of the 500 respondents who voted Labour in 2015, a quarter supported the idea and 39% were against it.
May 16: Jeremy Corbyn now more popular than ‘neither’ option for PM
SUMMARY: Con 46%, Lab 33%, Lib 8%, UKIP 5%
SAMPLE: 2,003 GB adults
WHAT IT FOUND: Carried out on the day of Labour’s manifesto launch, this poll gives Jeremy Corbyn ‘s party a one-point rise from the previous week at the Tories’ expense. UKIP and the Lib Dems both remained unchanged. It also shows a rise in the number of people saying Mr Corbyn would make a better prime minister than Theresa May – his score rising to 22% from 19% a week ago and hers remaining static at 45%.
RANDOM STAT: This is the first time since Theresa May became prime minister that more voters selected Jeremy Corbyn as the best occupant of Number 10 rather than say ‘neither’ – 22% versus 21% respectively.
May 15-17: Labour hits a high after manifesto launch – but gap is still 15 points
SUMMARY: Con 49%, Lab 34%, Lib 7%, Greens 3%, UKIP 2%
BY: Ipsos MORI
SAMPLE: 1,053 GB adults by phone
WHAT IT FOUND: The first poll after Labour’s bold and radical manifesto launch suggested the party had won a boost – hitting 34% of the vote, up eight points since a MORI poll a month earlier. As far as we can tell this is the highest so far in the short election campaign. To compare, Labour won just 30.4% under Ed Miliband in the 2015 election. But it wasn’t entirely good news for Labour as the Tories gained too, on 49%. UKIP was trailing on an absolutely measly 2%.
RANDOM STAT: Mrs May may claim to be “strong and stable” but 43% think the economy will get worse – just 27% think it will get better.
May 12-15: Labour hits 33% of the vote
SUMMARY: Con 47%, Lab 33%, Lib 7%, UKIP 5%
SAMPLE: 1,026 adults
WHAT IT FOUND: Carried out in the run-up to Labour’s manifesto launch, this poll put the party on one of its highest shares of the vote yet (33%). But with the Tories riding high amid the collapse of UKIP, that still meant a 14-point gap between the two main parties.
RANDOM STAT: There’s some hope for Jeremy Corbyn yet – 23% of those expressing a party preference said they might still change their mind.
April 24 – May 5: Grim news for Labour from the regions
SUMMARY: Varied by region
SAMPLE: Combination of polls with 17,000 people
WHAT IT FOUND: Analysis of several polls put Labour just two points ahead of the Tories in its heartland of the north east of England. In the north west the two parties were level, and in Yorkshire and Wales Labour leads in 2015 had been turned into Tory ones in 2017, the poll said.
RANDOM STAT: UKIP’s vote share was down by seven to ten points in nearly every region, YouGov said.
Week to May 14: Tories ‘could win a majority bigger than Thatcher’
SUMMARY: N /A
BY: Tory grandee Lord Ashcroft
SAMPLE: Combination of polls with 40,000 people
WHAT IT FOUND: Analysis of polling by the Tory donor, known for his love of polls, claimed the Tories could win a majority of up to 172 seats over Labour as UKIP collapses and the party struggles to win over centrist votes. This would be bigger than the 144 majority Margaret Thatcher managed in 1983 and just short of the 179-majority landslide Tony Blair won in 1997.
RANDOM STAT: Labour MPs singled out as being ‘at risk’ include Melanie Onn, Sue Hayman and Judith Cummins.
May 11-12 Lib Dem Fightback retreats and UKIP faces collapse
(Photo: Getty Images Europe)
SUMMARY: Con 49%, Lab 31%, Lib 9%, Ukip 3%
SAMPLE: 1,630 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: While other polls showed Labour closing the gap (see below), this grim survey put the Tories on an 18-point lead. It’s worth noting the Labour share – 31% – was higher than Ed Miliband got two years ago. But the problem for Labour seemed to be the Tories sponging up other parties’ votes. The poll showed the Lib Dems on single figures for the first time this year, putting paid to claims of a fightback. And UKIP faced collapse as its votes bled away to the newly hard-right Tories.
RANDOM STAT: A clear majority backed Labour’s plans to scrap tuition fees and renationalise Royal Mail and the railways, but 52% said the promises were unaffordable.
May 10-12: Jeremy Corbyn closes the gap in THREE polls – but not nearly enough
(Photo: Getty Images Europe)
SUMMARY: Con 48%, Lab 30%, Lib 10%, Ukip 5%, Others 8%
SAMPLE: 2,007 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: This poll was carried out during Labour’s manifesto leak that showed the party is planning the most left-wing agenda for a generation. And it showed Labour had closed the gap on the Tories by five points since ComRes’ last offering – but not nearly enough to stop a Tory landslide. However, two other polls also suggested Labour was closing the gap:
- An Opinium poll of 2,003 UK adults (May 9-12) also saw the Tory lead drop – but remain on 15 points. Con 47%, Lab 32%, Lib 8%, Ukip 5%, Others 8%
- An ORB poll of nearly 2,000 people (May 10-11) put the gap between the two parties on just 14 points, but found more working-class people in the ‘DE’ social grade back the Tories (44%) than Labour (35%). Con 46%, Lab 32%, Lib 8%, Ukip 7%
RANDOM STAT: Theresa May’s warnings about a Labour tax bombshell didn’t seem to be working. More people believed they’d pay more tax under the Conservatives (53%) than Labour (47%). And it could well be true. Labour ruled out tax rises for people earning under £80,000. The Tories had not.
When would you expect to pay more tax?
May 5-6: Fewer than half of 2015 Labour voters say Corbyn would be best Prime Minister
(Photo: Dan Kitwood)
SUMMARY: Con 47%, Lab 30%, Lib 7%, Ukip 4%, Green 3%, Others 9%
SAMPLE: 1,005 GB adults by phone
WHAT IT FOUND: Another poll putting Labour around 16 points behind the Tories with four weeks to go until polling day – and that’s about as good as the news got for Jeremy Corbyn . Fewer than half of people who voted Labour in 2015 – and just 56.9% of people who intended to vote Labour in June – thought Jeremy Corbyn would make the best Prime Minister. And perhaps even more alarmingly, only 39% of all those who took the poll thought he would be the best candidate to protect the NHS, compared to 42% picking Mrs May.
RANDOM STAT: Just 24.2% of people who voted Ukip in 2015 intend to do so again. 58.5% of them said they are going to vote Tory.
May 4-8: Theresa May is a strong leader – but Jeremy Corbyn is more in touch with ordinary people
SUMMARY: Con 44%, Lab 28%, Lib 11%, Ukip 8%, Green 5%, SNP 4%, Others 1%
SAMPLE: 1,201 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Labour saw an 8 point recovery in this Kantar poll – but that still left them 16 points behind. It showed one-in-ten voters have yet to decide how they would vote, but that seemed unlikely to be the kind of number that could swing the result.
RANDOM STAT: People saw Theresa May as a decisive and a strong negotiator, by 72% to 28% for Corbyn. Jeremy Corbyn , though, was seen as more in touch with ordinary people’s lives – by 57% to 43% for May.
May 5-7: Labour a record 22 points behind the Tories
SUMMARY: Con 49%, Lab 27%, Lib 9%, Ukip 6%, Others 8%
SAMPLE: 2,038 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: This crushing poll gave the Conservatives a whopping 22-point lead over Labour – the highest Tory lead ever recorded by ICM, whose polls date back to 1983. “The probable Conservative landslide is now more securely etched onto the electoral canvas,” said ICM. It came despite Jeremy Corbyn unveiling what are generally seen as vote-winning policies, including a vow to raise taxes only for people earning over £80,000.
RANDOM STAT: Alarmingly the Tories had a 10-point lead in Labour-held marginal seats, though take this with a pinch of salt as the sample size was only 186 people. The lead in Tory-held marginals was 22 points (sample size 149).
May 4-5: Up a bit, down a bit
SUMMARY: Con 47%, Lab 28%, Lib 11%, Ukip 6%, Others 8%
SAMPLE: 1,645 GB Adults
WHAT IT FOUND: Little change since the other YouGov poll earlier in the week – Tories and Labour both down a bit. But it cemented the theory that the poll showing Labour gaining ground on the Tory lead was an outlier.
RANDOM STAT: The “how would you vote if the election was tomorrow” question becomes more interesting this close to an actual election. Especially considering they factor “don’t knows’ into the equation.
That put the Tories on 34% with Labour on 22% – but there were 15% that hadn’t decided yet. If Labour won literally all of those, they could win.
May 3-4: Four point boost for Theresa May, no change for Labour
SUMMARY: Con 46%, Lab 31% , Lib 9%, Ukip 8%, Others 6%
SAMPLE: 1,552 GB Adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This was the first poll fully conducted since Theresa May’s angry rattle at Brussels for ‘meddling’ in the election. Things were looking a little more optimistic for Labour. But the Tories were still 15 points ahead in this poll. Almost as interesting was this poll putting Ukip at least two points higher than most others.
RANDOM STAT: Three people who voted remain told this pollster they were going to vote Ukip. Perhaps that promise to make the BBC licence fee voluntary is getting traction.
May 2-3: Labour still behind – but smashing it on education
SUMMARY: Con 46%, Lab 30%, Lib 9%, Ukip 7%
SAMPLE: 2,005 GB Adults
WHAT IT FOUND: A healthy, five-point bump for Labour compared to the last Opinium poll – but Labour were still 16 points behind. Meanwhile, Theresa May was sitting on a +13% net approval rating, compared to Jeremy Corbyn ‘s -32%.
RANDOM STAT: Buried in the tables for this one was an almost entirely unexpected number. Labour were absolutely smashing it on education. Just 20% said they trusted the Tories more on education, compared to 42% for Labour. That’s a stonking lead on one of Theresa May’s favourite subjects.
May 2-3: Tories back on a stonking 19 point lead
SUMMARY: Con 48%, Lab 29%, Lib 10%, Ukip 5%, Others 8%
SAMPLE: 2,066 GB Adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This didn’t make pleasing reading for those cheering Labour’s 10-point recovery in the last YouGov poll. Labour showed a 2 point dip compared to that poll, with the Tories 4 points up. The rolling average in the previous two weeks showed a pretty steep increase in the Tories’ vote share, and while Labour saw its grow slightly, it wasn’t enough to stop the gap widening.
RANDOM STAT: Already sick of hearing Theresa May’s ‘Strong and Stable’ catchphrase? Get used to it – you’re going to be hearing it a LOT more. The poll showed just 11% of people with “medium” political attention could remember hearing it within the last week.
April 28 – May 2: Labour narrows the huge gap by 5 points as the NHS dominates voters’ minds
(Photo: Getty Images Europe)
SUMMARY: Con 47%, Lab 30%, Lib 10%, UKIP 5%, Green 2%
SAMPLE: 1,034 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Only Panelbase’s second poll of the election, it might be fair to take this one with a pinch of salt. But it found Labour’s poll deficit had closed from 22 points to 17 compared with the first Panelbase poll a week earlier. That’s still huge, but there is some good news for the Labour leader. The poll found the NHS is by far the top issue for voters. 63% named it in their top three election priorities – compared to 40% saying Brexit , 38% saying immigration and 31% saying the economy. The poll was carried out just before Mr Corbyn vowed to halt the Tories’ £22bn hospital cuts programme.
RANDOM STAT: More than half of people would watch a TV debate – even if Theresa May isn’t there. 61% of people said they’d watch one with all the party leaders, dropping only slightly to 52% if she is the only leader missing. She’d better stop being a chicken after ITV announced a date.
April 28 – May 2: A third of people expect a massive Tory majority
SUMMARY: Con 47%, Lab 28%, Lib 8%, UKIP 8%
SAMPLE: 1,970 UK adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: After a string of vaguely hopeful polls before the bank holiday weekend, this crushing survey put the Tories 19 points ahead (even if it was below the 21-point lead in the last ICM poll a week earlier). And 34% of those who responded now expect the Tories to win a majority of 100 seats or more. That’s no prediction, but showed how the country felt. This poll also showed an apparent 14-point Tory lead in Labour-held marginal seats in England. “Numbers like these would be true meltdown territory,” ICM said.
RANDOM STAT: Some 15% of voters were put off voting Labour by the idea of a crushing defeat. Only 14% were more likely to vote Labour because of it.
April 30: Four election polls on one Sunday
April 27-28: Labour closes the gap by 10 points – but they’re hardly level yet
SUMMARY: Con 44%, Lab 31%, Lib 11%, UKIP 6%, Other 8%
BY: YouGov for the Sunday Times
SAMPLE: 1,612 GB adults
WHAT IT FOUND: With support for Labour at 31%, the 13-point gap with the Tories in this poll was a full 10 POINTS smaller than a YouGov Sunday Times poll a week earlier. But clearly, it would still hand Theresa May a commanding victory on June 8. It was carried out as Jeremy Corbyn posed with a baby in Harlow, Essex, while Theresa May faced attacks for barring ‘normal’ members of the public from her activist-filled events.
- Another poll on the same weekend by Opinium put the gap at 17 points (Con 47% Lab 30%) but the party’s support had increased by four points since a week earlier.
- A third poll by ICM on the same weekend put the gap even bigger at 19 points (Con 47% Lab 28%).
RANDOM STAT: Jeremy Corbyn ‘s personal rating as leader was, well, not as good. It was a staggering minus 52, compared to plus 11 for Theresa May.
April 26-27: Poll gap at 11 points – but Labour behind in Scotland
SUMMARY: Con 42%, Lab 31%, Lib 10%, UKIP 8%, Other 9%
SAMPLE: 2,093 UK adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This poll put support for Labour 11 points behind the Tories – narrower than many other polls on the market. But it also showed Labour on just 16% in Scotland compared to 27% for the Tories.
RANDOM STAT: The poll put support for the Tories higher in Wales (56%) than any other region, even the South East (50%). But the sample size was very small – just 100 or so people in each region – so this could be unintentionally skewed.
April 25-26: Are voters feeling some Bregret?
SUMMARY: Con 45%, Lab 29%, Lib 10%, UKIP 7%, Other 9%
SAMPLE: 1,590 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Some 45% of those asked said it was wrong for Britain to leave the EU – compared to 43% who said it was right. According to the Times, which commissioned the poll, this was the first time since last June that more people have thought leaving the EU is wrong.
RANDOM STAT: The Tory poll lead over Labour shrank to 16 points in this poll – down from 23 points in a YouGov poll less than a week earlier.
April 21-25: Theresa May’s approval highest for 38 YEARS
(Photo: Getty Images Europe)
SUMMARY: Con 49%, Lab 26%, Lib 13%, UKIP 4%
BY: Ipsos MORI
SAMPLE: 1,004 GB adults by phone
WHAT IT FOUND: Despite the Tory leader campaigning in tightly-controlled environments to hand-picked audiences, this poll gave her a 61% approval rating – the highest of any leader since Ipsos MORI started asking the question in 1979. Other leaders have had bigger leads despite a lower overall score, including Tony Blair over William Hague in 2001.
RANDOM STAT: Brexit is the top issue for 57% of Tory voters and 59% of Lib Dems – but just 32% of Labour voters. Instead Labour voters’ top issue is the state of the NHS.
April 2-20: Labour WINNING in the under-40s
SUMMARY: Con 44%, Lab 25%, Lib 12%, UKIP 9%, Other 10%
SAMPLE: 12,746 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: This monstrous mega-poll of nearly 13,000 people was combined from several YouGov pieces of work – and exposed the extent of the generation gap in Britain. If only under-40s were voting, Jeremy Corbyn ‘s Labour would win by a wide margin – with every group under 30 favouring Labour over the Tories, and the parties neck-and-neck if you’re between 30 and 39. But overall the Tories had a 19-point lead as don’t forget, it’s overwhelmingly older people who vote.
RANDOM STAT: Women under 40 seem to really like Labour. 42% of them back the party compared to 27% backing the Tories.
April 21-24: Grim news for Labour from marginal seats
SUMMARY: Con 48%, Lab 27%, Lib 10%, UKIP 7%, Other 8%
SAMPLE: 2,024 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Jeremy Corbyn came out fighting on the first weekend of the election campaign while Theresa May stayed out of sight. But she still managed a 21-point lead – and experimental figures in this poll gave the Tories a 17-point lead even in marginal seats. “It is only a cross-break based on 168 voters, and should be treated with much caution, but indicates significant losses for the Labour Party ,” ICM said.
RANDOM STAT: Labour and the Tories were neck-neck in one group – people who are out of work (33% each).
April 21-22: Tax and pension threats hit the Tories
SUMMARY: Con 40%, Lab 29%, Lib 11%, UKIP 11%, Other 9%
SAMPLE: 2,072 UK adults
WHAT IT FOUND: The Tories’ lead was cut to 11 points in the first poll after they refused to rule out VAT or National Insurance hikes after the election – and hinted the triple lock that protects pensions could go. Some 28% of people said threatening the triple lock makes them less likely to vote Conservative – 17% said it makes them more likely. Labour has vowed to protect the expensive mechanism to help pensioners until 2025.
RANDOM STAT: Two-thirds of people (66%) back raising income tax to give the NHS an extra £4billion.
April 20-21: May would manage the NHS better than Corbyn
(Photo: Coventry Telegraph)
SUMMARY: Con 48%, Lab 25%, Lib 12%, UKIP 5%, Other 10%
SAMPLE: 1,590 people
WHAT IT FOUND: In the first full week of the election campaign, a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times found just 29% of voters trust Theresa May to run the NHS – but the figure for Jeremy Corbyn , who planned to campaign on the issue, was just 26%. Voters also backed the Tory top team on managing an international crisis and the economy.
RANDOM STAT: UKIP’s support was down to a paltry 5%.
April 19-21: Tories get historic poll bump in Wales
(Photo: Getty Images Europe)
SUMMARY (WALES): Con 40%, Lab 30% , Plaid 13%, Lib 8%, Ukip 6%, Other 3%
SAMPLE: 1,029 Welsh adults
WHAT IT FOUND: The Tories look to be on course for a genuinely historic win in Wales. Around Labour 10 seats could go blue, after a sharp swing from Labour to Tory – giving them their first General Election victory in Wales in a century.
40% of the vote would give Theresa May 21 of the 40 Westminster seats in Wales – leaving Labour with just 15.
The other story from this poll is the collapse of Ukip support in recent months. The previous most recent poll – only a few months ago – had them on 13% in Wales. Now they’re on just six, which puts them on course to win exactly no seats in Wales.
RANDOM STAT: According to this poll, exactly nobody in Wales is going to vote BNP. That’s down from 1% in the previous poll in January. Was it something they said?
April 18-21: Tories eye new seats in Scotland
SUMMARY (SCOTLAND): SNP 44%, Con 33%, Lab 13%, Lib 5%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%
SAMPLE: 1,029 people
WHAT IT FOUND: Support north of the border for Labour was just 13% in this poll – down from 24% in the 2015 general election. Meanwhile the poll suggested the number of Scottish Tory seats could leap from one to 12. Labour, which was already knocked into third place in last year’s Scottish Parliament elections, would lose its only Scottish MP.
RANDOM STAT: Fewer than half of Scots polled (48%) thought there should be another independence referendum in the next two years.
April 19-20: Tories hit highest vote share since 1991
(Photo: Sunday Mirror)
SUMMARY: Con 50%, Lab 25%, Lib 11%, UKIP 7%, Other 8%
SAMPLE: 2,074 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Midway through the first full week of the election campaign was devastating news for Corbyn’s Labour – with the Tories hitting the ‘magical’ 50% vote share threshold for the first time in a ComRes poll since 1991. If the 25-point lead over Labour continued on polling day it could give Theresa May a bigger landslide than Tony Blair in 1997.
RANDOM STAT: Jeremy Corbyn had relied on young voters to usher in his new kind of politics, but 41% of 18-24-year-olds said Labour could not win with him at the helm.
April 19-20: UKIP’s appeal is Nuttall that any more
SUMMARY: Con 45%, Lab 26%, Lib 11%, UKIP 9%, Other 8%
SAMPLE: 2,003 UK adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: With Theresa May promising a Hard Brexit , the poll claimed just half (53%) of those who said they’d vote UKIP in February plan to now, with 30% opting for the Tories. It meant Mrs May’s party had a 19-point lead over Labour – up from 9 points in the previous Opinium poll.
RANDOM STAT: Labour was more trusted on the NHS (32%) than the Tories (20%) – but Tories had a runaway lead on everything else. That’s immigration, Brexit , terrorism and the economy.
April 18-19: Tories kick off on a 9-year high
(Photo: Dan Kitwood)
SUMMARY: Con 48%, Lab 24%, Lib 12%, UKIP 7%, Other 9%
SAMPLE: 1,727 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: As Theresa May announced her snap election, this 24-point Tory lead was YouGov’s highest for the party since Gordon Brown was Prime Minister in May 2008. But Labour wasn’t the only party doing badly – UKIP’s 7% share was the lowest for more than four years.
RANDOM STAT: ‘Don’t Know’ had double the support (31%) of Jeremy Corbyn (15%) when asked who makes the best Prime Minister.
April 11-13: Voters like Corbyn’s policies, but not him
SUMMARY: Con 46%, Lab 25%, Lib 11%, UKIP 9%, Other 10%
SAMPLE: 2,029 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Jeremy Corbyn spent the week before the election bombshell unveiling new policies – and they were popular. 62% backed raising the top tax rate and 53% backed charging VAT on private school fees to fund free school lunches for all. Yet Labour still trailed 21 points.
RANDOM STAT: Nearly half of Labour voters (43%) say Britain needs a new “centre-ground political party”.
General election 2017 countdown