Britain heads to the polls on June 8 for a snap general election.
And as the campaigns unfold over 50 days, the eyes of thousands of strategists, politicians and the public are on the polls.
Pollsters got a bad rep after they mostly missed Brexit and the scale of the Tories’ 2015 majority.
But taken together, surveys still make an interesting read – and illustrate the scale of the task ahead of the Labour Party .
We’re updating this article as the campaign unfolds to include commentary, stats and links for the latest major public polls. Scroll down for more – the newest polls are at the top.
For the latest betting odds click here.
Rolling poll tracker since 2015
Adjusted rolling average of voting intentions from several pollsters, compiled by Britain Elects
Week to May 14: Tories ‘could win a majority bigger than Thatcher’
BY: Tory grandee Lord Ashcroft
SAMPLE: Combination of polls with 40,000 people
WHAT IT FOUND: Analysis of polling by the Tory donor, known for his love of polls, claimed the Tories could win a majority of up to 172 seats over Labour as UKIP collapses and the party struggles to win over centrist votes. This would be bigger than the 144 majority Margaret Thatcher managed in 1983 and just short of the 179-majority landslide Tony Blair won in 1997.
RANDOM STAT: Labour MPs singled out as being ‘at risk’ include Melanie Onn, Sue Hayman and Judith Cummins.
Week to May 14: Lib Dem Fightback retreats and UKIP faces collapse
(Photo: Getty Images Europe)
SUMMARY: Con 49%, Lab 31%, Lib 9%, Ukip 3%
BY: YouGov for the Sunday Times
SAMPLE: Not available
WHAT IT FOUND: While other polls showed Labour closing the gap (see below), this grim survey put the Tories on an 18-point lead. It’s worth noting the Labour share – 31% – was higher than Ed Miliband got two years ago. But the problem for Labour seemed to be the Tories sponging up other parties’ votes. The poll showed the Lib Dems on single figures for the first time this year, putting paid to claims of a fightback. And UKIP faced collapse as its votes bled away to the newly hard-right Tories.
RANDOM STAT: A clear majority backed Labour’s plans to scrap tuition fees and renationalise Royal Mail and the railways, but 52% said the promises were unaffordable.
May 10-12: Jeremy Corbyn closes the gap in THREE polls – but not nearly enough
(Photo: Getty Images Europe)
SUMMARY: Con 48%, Lab 30%, Lib 10%, Ukip 5%, Others 8%
SAMPLE: 2,007 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: This poll was carried out during Labour’s manifesto leak that showed the party is planning the most left-wing agenda for a generation. And it showed Labour had closed the gap on the Tories by five points since ComRes’ last offering – but not nearly enough to stop a Tory landslide. However, two other polls also suggested Labour was closing the gap:
- An Opinium poll of 2,003 UK adults (May 9-12) also saw the Tory lead drop – but remain on 15 points. Con 47%, Lab 32%, Lib 8%, Ukip 5%, Others 8%
- An ORB poll of nearly 2,000 people (May 10-11) put the gap between the two parties on just 14 points, but found more working-class people in the ‘DE’ social grade back the Tories (44%) than Labour (35%). Con 46%, Lab 32%, Lib 8%, Ukip 7%
RANDOM STAT: Theresa May’s warnings about a Labour tax bombshell didn’t seem to be working. More people believed they’d pay more tax under the Conservatives (53%) than Labour (47%). And it could well be true. Labour ruled out tax rises for people earning under £80,000. The Tories had not.
When would you expect to pay more tax?
May 5-6: Fewer than half of 2015 Labour voters say Corbyn would be best Prime Minister
(Photo: Dan Kitwood)
SUMMARY: Con 47%, Lab 30%, Lib 7%, Ukip 4%, Green 3%, Others 9%
SAMPLE: 1,005 GB adults by phone
WHAT IT FOUND: Another poll putting Labour around 16 points behind the Tories with four weeks to go until polling day – and that’s about as good as the news got for Jeremy Corbyn. Fewer than half of people who voted Labour in 2015 – and just 56.9% of people who intended to vote Labour in June – thought Jeremy Corbyn would make the best Prime Minister. And perhaps even more alarmingly, only 39% of all those who took the poll thought he would be the best candidate to protect the NHS, compared to 42% picking Mrs May.
RANDOM STAT: Just 24.2% of people who voted Ukip in 2015 intend to do so again. 58.5% of them said they are going to vote Tory.
May 4-8: Theresa May is a strong leader – but Jeremy Corbyn is more in touch with ordinary people
SUMMARY: Con 44%, Lab 28%, Lib 11%, Ukip 8%, Green 5%, SNP 4%, Others 1%
SAMPLE: 1,201 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Labour saw an 8 point recovery in this Kantar poll – but that still left them 16 points behind. It showed one-in-ten voters have yet to decide how they would vote, but that seemed unlikely to be the kind of number that could swing the result.
RANDOM STAT: People saw Theresa May as a decisive and a strong negotiator, by 72% to 28% for Corbyn. Jeremy Corbyn, though, was seen as more in touch with ordinary people’s lives – by 57% to 43% for May.
May 5-7: Labour a record 22 points behind the Tories
SUMMARY: Con 49%, Lab 27%, Lib 9%, Ukip 6%, Others 8%
SAMPLE: 2,038 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: This crushing poll gave the Conservatives a whopping 22-point lead over Labour – the highest Tory lead ever recorded by ICM, whose polls date back to 1983. “The probable Conservative landslide is now more securely etched onto the electoral canvas,” said ICM. It came despite Jeremy Corbyn unveiling what are generally seen as vote-winning policies, including a vow to raise taxes only for people earning over £80,000.
RANDOM STAT: Alarmingly the Tories had a 10-point lead in Labour-held marginal seats, though take this with a pinch of salt as the sample size was only 186 people. The lead in Tory-held marginals was 22 points (sample size 149).
May 4-5: Up a bit, down a bit
SUMMARY: Con 47%, Lab 28%, Lib 11%, Ukip 6%, Others 8%
SAMPLE: 1,645 GB Adults
WHAT IT FOUND: Little change since the other YouGov poll earlier in the week – Tories and Labour both down a bit. But it cemented the theory that the poll showing Labour gaining ground on the Tory lead was an outlier.
RANDOM STAT: The “how would you vote if the election was tomorrow” question becomes more interesting this close to an actual election. Especially considering they factor “don’t knows’ into the equation.
That put the Tories on 34% with Labour on 22% – but there were 15% that hadn’t decided yet. If Labour won literally all of those, they could win.
May 3-4: Four point boost for Theresa May, no change for Labour
SUMMARY: Con 46%, Lab 31%, Lib 9%, Ukip 8%, Others 6%
SAMPLE: 1,552 GB Adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This was the first poll fully conducted since Theresa May’s angry rattle at Brussels for ‘meddling’ in the election. Things were looking a little more optimistic for Labour. But the Tories were still 15 points ahead in this poll. Almost as interesting was this poll putting Ukip at least two points higher than most others.
RANDOM STAT: Three people who voted remain told this pollster they were going to vote Ukip. Perhaps that promise to make the BBC licence fee voluntary is getting traction.
May 2-3: Labour still behind – but smashing it on education
SUMMARY: Con 46%, Lab 30%, Lib 9%, Ukip 7%
SAMPLE: 2,005 GB Adults
WHAT IT FOUND: A healthy, five-point bump for Labour compared to the last Opinium poll – but Labour were still 16 points behind. Meanwhile, Theresa May was sitting on a +13% net approval rating, compared to Jeremy Corbyn‘s -32%.
RANDOM STAT: Buried in the tables for this one was an almost entirely unexpected number. Labour were absolutely smashing it on education. Just 20% said they trusted the Tories more on education, compared to 42% for Labour. That’s a stonking lead on one of Theresa May’s favourite subjects.
May 2-3: Tories back on a stonking 19 point lead
SUMMARY: Con 48%, Lab 29%, Lib 10%, Ukip 5%, Others 8%
SAMPLE: 2,066 GB Adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This didn’t make pleasing reading for those cheering Labour’s 10-point recovery in the last YouGov poll. Labour showed a 2 point dip compared to that poll, with the Tories 4 points up. The rolling average in the previous two weeks showed a pretty steep increase in the Tories’ vote share, and while Labour saw its grow slightly, it wasn’t enough to stop the gap widening.
RANDOM STAT: Already sick of hearing Theresa May’s ‘Strong and Stable’ catchphrase? Get used to it – you’re going to be hearing it a LOT more. The poll showed just 11% of people with “medium” political attention could remember hearing it within the last week.
April 28 – May 2: Labour narrows the huge gap by 5 points as the NHS dominates voters’ minds
(Photo: Getty Images Europe)
SUMMARY: Con 47%, Lab 30%, Lib 10%, UKIP 5%, Green 2%
SAMPLE: 1,034 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Only Panelbase’s second poll of the election, it might be fair to take this one with a pinch of salt. But it found Labour’s poll deficit had closed from 22 points to 17 compared with the first Panelbase poll a week earlier. That’s still huge, but there is some good news for the Labour leader. The poll found the NHS is by far the top issue for voters. 63% named it in their top three election priorities – compared to 40% saying Brexit, 38% saying immigration and 31% saying the economy. The poll was carried out just before Mr Corbyn vowed to halt the Tories’ £22bn hospital cuts programme.
RANDOM STAT: More than half of people would watch a TV debate – even if Theresa May isn’t there. 61% of people said they’d watch one with all the party leaders, dropping only slightly to 52% if she is the only leader missing. She’d better stop being a chicken after ITV announced a date.
April 28 – May 2: A third of people expect a massive Tory majority
SUMMARY: Con 47%, Lab 28%, Lib 8%, UKIP 8%
SAMPLE: 1,970 UK adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: After a string of vaguely hopeful polls before the bank holiday weekend, this crushing survey put the Tories 19 points ahead (even if it was below the 21-point lead in the last ICM poll a week earlier). And 34% of those who responded now expect the Tories to win a majority of 100 seats or more. That’s no prediction, but showed how the country felt. This poll also showed an apparent 14-point Tory lead in Labour-held marginal seats in England. “Numbers like these would be true meltdown territory,” ICM said.
RANDOM STAT: Some 15% of voters were put off voting Labour by the idea of a crushing defeat. Only 14% were more likely to vote Labour because of it.
April 30: Four election polls on one Sunday
April 27-28: Labour closes the gap by 10 points – but they’re hardly level yet
SUMMARY: Con 44%, Lab 31%, Lib 11%, UKIP 6%, Other 8%
BY: YouGov for the Sunday Times
SAMPLE: 1,612 GB adults
WHAT IT FOUND: With support for Labour at 31%, the 13-point gap with the Tories in this poll was a full 10 POINTS smaller than a YouGov Sunday Times poll a week earlier. But clearly, it would still hand Theresa May a commanding victory on June 8. It was carried out as Jeremy Corbyn posed with a baby in Harlow, Essex, while Theresa May faced attacks for barring ‘normal’ members of the public from her activist-filled events.
- Another poll on the same weekend by Opinium put the gap at 17 points (Con 47% Lab 30%) but the party’s support had increased by four points since a week earlier.
- A third poll by ICM on the same weekend put the gap even bigger at 19 points (Con 47% Lab 28%).
RANDOM STAT: Jeremy Corbyn‘s personal rating as leader was, well, not as good. It was a staggering minus 52, compared to plus 11 for Theresa May.
April 26-27: Poll gap at 11 points – but Labour behind in Scotland
SUMMARY: Con 42%, Lab 31%, Lib 10%, UKIP 8%, Other 9%
SAMPLE: 2,093 UK adults
WHAT IT FOUND: This poll put support for Labour 11 points behind the Tories – narrower than many other polls on the market. But it also showed Labour on just 16% in Scotland compared to 27% for the Tories.
RANDOM STAT: The poll put support for the Tories higher in Wales (56%) than any other region, even the South East (50%). But the sample size was very small – just 100 or so people in each region – so this could be unintentionally skewed.
April 25-26: Are voters feeling some Bregret?
SUMMARY: Con 45%, Lab 29%, Lib 10%, UKIP 7%, Other 9%
SAMPLE: 1,590 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Some 45% of those asked said it was wrong for Britain to leave the EU – compared to 43% who said it was right. According to the Times, which commissioned the poll, this was the first time since last June that more people have thought leaving the EU is wrong.
RANDOM STAT: The Tory poll lead over Labour shrank to 16 points in this poll – down from 23 points in a YouGov poll less than a week earlier.
April 21-25: Theresa May’s approval highest for 38 YEARS
(Photo: Getty Images Europe)
SUMMARY: Con 49%, Lab 26%, Lib 13%, UKIP 4%
BY: Ipsos MORI
SAMPLE: 1,004 GB adults by phone
WHAT IT FOUND: Despite the Tory leader campaigning in tightly-controlled environments to hand-picked audiences, this poll gave her a 61% approval rating – the highest of any leader since Ipsos MORI started asking the question in 1979. Other leaders have had bigger leads despite a lower overall score, including Tony Blair over William Hague in 2001.
RANDOM STAT: Brexit is the top issue for 57% of Tory voters and 59% of Lib Dems – but just 32% of Labour voters. Instead Labour voters’ top issue is the state of the NHS.
April 2-20: Labour WINNING in the under-40s
SUMMARY: Con 44%, Lab 25%, Lib 12%, UKIP 9%, Other 10%
SAMPLE: 12,746 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: This monstrous mega-poll of nearly 13,000 people was combined from several YouGov pieces of work – and exposed the extent of the generation gap in Britain. If only under-40s were voting, Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour would win by a wide margin – with every group under 30 favouring Labour over the Tories, and the parties neck-and-neck if you’re between 30 and 39. But overall the Tories had a 19-point lead as don’t forget, it’s overwhelmingly older people who vote.
RANDOM STAT: Women under 40 seem to really like Labour. 42% of them back the party compared to 27% backing the Tories.
April 21-24: Grim news for Labour from marginal seats
SUMMARY: Con 48%, Lab 27%, Lib 10%, UKIP 7%, Other 8%
SAMPLE: 2,024 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Jeremy Corbyn came out fighting on the first weekend of the election campaign while Theresa May stayed out of sight. But she still managed a 21-point lead – and experimental figures in this poll gave the Tories a 17-point lead even in marginal seats. “It is only a cross-break based on 168 voters, and should be treated with much caution, but indicates significant losses for the Labour Party,” ICM said.
RANDOM STAT: Labour and the Tories were neck-neck in one group – people who are out of work (33% each).
April 21-22: Tax and pension threats hit the Tories
SUMMARY: Con 40%, Lab 29%, Lib 11%, UKIP 11%, Other 9%
SAMPLE: 2,072 UK adults
WHAT IT FOUND: The Tories’ lead was cut to 11 points in the first poll after they refused to rule out VAT or National Insurance hikes after the election – and hinted the triple lock that protects pensions could go. Some 28% of people said threatening the triple lock makes them less likely to vote Conservative – 17% said it makes them more likely. Labour has vowed to protect the expensive mechanism to help pensioners until 2025.
RANDOM STAT: Two-thirds of people (66%) back raising income tax to give the NHS an extra £4billion.
April 20-21: May would manage the NHS better than Corbyn
(Photo: Coventry Telegraph)
SUMMARY: Con 48%, Lab 25%, Lib 12%, UKIP 5%, Other 10%
SAMPLE: 1,590 people
WHAT IT FOUND: In the first full week of the election campaign, a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times found just 29% of voters trust Theresa May to run the NHS – but the figure for Jeremy Corbyn, who planned to campaign on the issue, was just 26%. Voters also backed the Tory top team on managing an international crisis and the economy.
RANDOM STAT: UKIP’s support was down to a paltry 5%.
April 19-21: Tories get historic poll bump in Wales
(Photo: Getty Images Europe)
SUMMARY (WALES): Con 40%, Lab 30%, Plaid 13%, Lib 8%, Ukip 6%, Other 3%
SAMPLE: 1,029 Welsh adults
WHAT IT FOUND: The Tories look to be on course for a genuinely historic win in Wales. Around Labour 10 seats could go blue, after a sharp swing from Labour to Tory – giving them their first General Election victory in Wales in a century.
40% of the vote would give Theresa May 21 of the 40 Westminster seats in Wales – leaving Labour with just 15.
The other story from this poll is the collapse of Ukip support in recent months. The previous most recent poll – only a few months ago – had them on 13% in Wales. Now they’re on just six, which puts them on course to win exactly no seats in Wales.
RANDOM STAT: According to this poll, exactly nobody in Wales is going to vote BNP. That’s down from 1% in the previous poll in January. Was it something they said?
April 18-21: Tories eye new seats in Scotland
SUMMARY (SCOTLAND): SNP 44%, Con 33%, Lab 13%, Lib 5%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%
SAMPLE: 1,029 people
WHAT IT FOUND: Support north of the border for Labour was just 13% in this poll – down from 24% in the 2015 general election. Meanwhile the poll suggested the number of Scottish Tory seats could leap from one to 12. Labour, which was already knocked into third place in last year’s Scottish Parliament elections, would lose its only Scottish MP.
RANDOM STAT: Fewer than half of Scots polled (48%) thought there should be another independence referendum in the next two years.
April 19-20: Tories hit highest vote share since 1991
(Photo: Sunday Mirror)
SUMMARY: Con 50%, Lab 25%, Lib 11%, UKIP 7%, Other 8%
SAMPLE: 2,074 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Midway through the first full week of the election campaign was devastating news for Corbyn’s Labour – with the Tories hitting the ‘magical’ 50% vote share threshold for the first time in a ComRes poll since 1991. If the 25-point lead over Labour continued on polling day it could give Theresa May a bigger landslide than Tony Blair in 1997.
RANDOM STAT: Jeremy Corbyn had relied on young voters to usher in his new kind of politics, but 41% of 18-24-year-olds said Labour could not win with him at the helm.
April 19-20: UKIP’s appeal is Nuttall that any more
SUMMARY: Con 45%, Lab 26%, Lib 11%, UKIP 9%, Other 8%
SAMPLE: 2,003 UK adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: With Theresa May promising a Hard Brexit, the poll claimed just half (53%) of those who said they’d vote UKIP in February plan to now, with 30% opting for the Tories. It meant Mrs May’s party had a 19-point lead over Labour – up from 9 points in the previous Opinium poll.
RANDOM STAT: Labour was more trusted on the NHS (32%) than the Tories (20%) – but Tories had a runaway lead on everything else. That’s immigration, Brexit, terrorism and the economy.
April 18-19: Tories kick off on a 9-year high
(Photo: Dan Kitwood)
SUMMARY: Con 48%, Lab 24%, Lib 12%, UKIP 7%, Other 9%
SAMPLE: 1,727 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: As Theresa May announced her snap election, this 24-point Tory lead was YouGov’s highest for the party since Gordon Brown was Prime Minister in May 2008. But Labour wasn’t the only party doing badly – UKIP’s 7% share was the lowest for more than four years.
RANDOM STAT: ‘Don’t Know’ had double the support (31%) of Jeremy Corbyn (15%) when asked who makes the best Prime Minister.
April 11-13: Voters like Corbyn’s policies, but not him
SUMMARY: Con 46%, Lab 25%, Lib 11%, UKIP 9%, Other 10%
SAMPLE: 2,029 GB adults online
WHAT IT FOUND: Jeremy Corbyn spent the week before the election bombshell unveiling new policies – and they were popular. 62% backed raising the top tax rate and 53% backed charging VAT on private school fees to fund free school lunches for all. Yet Labour still trailed 21 points.
RANDOM STAT: Nearly half of Labour voters (43%) say Britain needs a new “centre-ground political party”.
General election 2017 countdown
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn hit the election campaign trail